李咏_黄金继续辉煌!美元看涨或趋势结束,等待美联储总结判断的三个关键点

????汇通网2月20日讯—— 2月20日,现货黄金继续创下十个月新高,由于看好新一轮中美贸易谈判将有望解决双方的贸易冲突,市场对美元的避险需求消退,美指因而承压。此外美债收益率下滑,也对美指形成拖累。投资人在美联储稍晚公布政策会议纪要前态度谨慎,有三大看点值得关注。周三(2月20日),现货黄金继续创下十个月新高,由于看好新一轮中美贸易谈判将有望解决双方的贸易冲突,市场对美元的避险需求消退,美指因而承压。此外美债收益率下滑,也对美指形成拖累。投资人在美联储今日稍晚公布政策会议纪要前态度谨慎,三大看点值得关注。下载APP 阅读本文更深度报道汇通财经易汇通软件显示,北京时间21:08,现货黄金上涨0.29%至1344.89美元/盎司;COMEX期金主力合约上涨0.22%至1347.7美元/盎司;美元指数微升0.04%至96.542。现货金价继续刷新去年4月19日以来高点至1346.75美元/盎司。最近市场对美元的避险需求消退,美指已连续四个交易日收跌,多头折戟97整数关口。受围绕最新中美贸易谈判将帮助解决双方贸易摩擦的乐观情绪影响。美联储收益率下滑也进一步削弱了美元需求。大和证券的资深汇市策略师Yukio Ishizuki表示:“美债收益率下跌给美元造成的下行压力相当大。市场参与者试图消化可能偏鸽派的FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)会议纪要,也让美元处于守势。”美元跌势暂缓,交易商等待美联储定于北京时间周四凌晨3:00将公布的会议纪要。鉴于美联储在1月政策会议上发表的声明明显偏鸽派,此次美联储会议纪要有以下三大看点:一、美联储未来利率变化路径美联储主席鲍尔上月表示,在再次调整利率前可以“保持耐心”,让美国升息步伐风向突变。目前,决策层官员普遍预期,美联储年内至多加息1次。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周二表示,他对美国目前的利率水平感到满意,认为没有必要再次升息,除非经济成长或通胀意外加速。威廉姆斯在接受采访时表示,他感觉利率已达到他目前认为的“中性”水准,成长和失业趋稳,且通胀如果有的话,略弱于预期。当被问及是否需要某种冲击才能恢复加息时,他说,需要其中一个或多个因素意外上行。威廉姆斯的言论突显出收紧货币政策的门槛有多高,并暗示这一举措可能不会很快出台。他表示,决策者在政策上“处于非常有利的位置”,利率在中性水准附近,美国经济处于强势,物价压力迟滞。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、费城联储主席哈克二人此前也双双预测,美国今年升息不会超过1次。旧金山联储主席戴利更预期,美国今年根本不会升息。在接受《华尔街日报(博客,微博)》访问时指出,如果经济发展如她所说,预期经济成长2%、通胀率1.9%,同时没有物价压力上升、没有经济成长加速的感觉,认为今年就不存在升息的理由。FX678预期,美联储可能在1月份公布的会议纪要中,就加息前景作出更加鸽派的表述,美元指数重新站上97关口可能性不大。二、美联储如何看待资产负债表缩表进程?2007-09年经济衰退之后,美联储资产负债表规模已经膨胀至逾4万亿美元,美联储决策者从2017年底开始缩表。目前正以到期公债收益不再全部重新投资的方式进行缩表。缩表相当于收紧货币政策。梅斯特称,缩表进程可能对长期利率产生了上行压力。但梅斯特并不预计结束缩表将对经济带来提振。她表示:“总的来说,我不认为资产负债表会对经济产生实质影响。”她在特拉华大学一项小组讨论会中的言论暗示,自己支持“放慢”缩表进程。她并认为,美联储今年年底前还可以结束减持债券的进程,并且或能一步到位地结束缩表行动。威廉姆斯则表示,美联储资产负债表规模可能较之前预想的远更接近目前水准。他并估计,当资产负债表规模达到“可能有1万亿美元的储备,或略高于这一水平”,即较当前水准减少约6000亿美元时,缩表可能结束。美银美林分析师指出,资产负债表的讨论可能最为重要。美联储上次政策会议上已经表态,资产负债表将会根据经济情况做出调整,但在时间周期以及目标水平等,预期美联储将在会议纪要中透露些许线索。三、警惕美债收益率曲线可能迈向倒挂回顾美联储去年12月升息时,多数官员都预期今年还会有两次升息。但随着美国经济情势改变,例如去年12月零售销售创逾9年来最大跌幅;1月制造业产出也创下8个月来最大降幅。美联储在短短六周内从“暗示升息”转向“预示不会进一步升息”。观察人士认为,1月的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要公开后,有可能在几周内大幅推动收益率曲线朝倒挂方向发展。BMO策略师Jon Hill指出,美国2年期公债和10年期公债的收益利差,12月触及9.1个基点后,目前为14.4个基点。如果1月的FOMC会议纪显示,无论委员会指向以下两个方向中的任何一个,都可能促使该收益利差收窄。① 美联储暗示,即使美国经济没有长期改善的迹象,仍会再一次升息。② 美联储决策官员认为,经济衰退风险超过他们之前的预想,重申倾向于保持联邦基金利率区间不变。Hill说,鉴于目前的低利率波动,以及美国货币政策局势达到金融危机以来最不确定的状态,债券市场对1月会议纪要特别敏感,可能为收益率曲线在几周内倒挂奠定基础。汇通网分析认为,债市收益率曲线倒挂,意味着短期融资成本高企,长期经济前景则不为市场看好,市场避险情绪会受到提振,总体上利好金价走强。现货黄金或回测1326美元金价当前正试图站稳1340美元上方,自1196美元开启的上行3浪走势继续延展。在上日大涨后,多头的目标显然已经标准了前期高点——重要颈线位——1366美元。3浪又可分为五子浪。在五浪结构中,第三浪通常不能比第一、第五浪都短。鉴于此判断,金价短线有望见顶。目前金价可能处于3浪中的第(v)浪,长度接近(iii)浪。若金价转跌开启4浪走势,后市或回测1326美元和1300美元关口。1326美元是1366-1160美元下跌区间的80.9%斐波那契回档位。

hui tong wang 2 yue 20 ri xun 2 yue 20 ri, xian huo huang jin ji xu chuang xia shi ge yue xin gao, you yu kan hao xin yi lun zhong mei mao yi tan pan jiang you wang jie jue shuang fang de mao yi chong tu, shi chang dui mei yuan de bi xian xu qiu xiao tui, mei zhi yin er cheng ya. ci wai mei zhai shou yi lv xia hua, ye dui mei zhi xing cheng tuo lei. tou zi ren zai mei lian chu shao wan gong bu zheng ce hui yi ji yao qian tai du jin shen, you san da kan dian zhi de guan zhu. zhou san 2 yue 20 ri, xian huo huang jin ji xu chuang xia shi ge yue xin gao, you yu kan hao xin yi lun zhong mei mao yi tan pan jiang you wang jie jue shuang fang de mao yi chong tu, shi chang dui mei yuan de bi xian xu qiu xiao tui, mei zhi yin er cheng ya. ci wai mei zhai shou yi lv xia hua, ye dui mei zhi xing cheng tuo lei. tou zi ren zai mei lian chu jin ri shao wan gong bu zheng ce hui yi ji yao qian tai du jin shen, san da kan dian zhi de guan zhu. xia zai APP yue du ben wen geng shen du bao dao hui tong cai jing yi hui tong ruan jian xian shi, bei jing shi jian 21: 08, xian huo huang jin shang zhang 0. 29 zhi 1344. 89 mei yuan ang si COMEX qi jin zhu li he yue shang zhang 0. 22 zhi 1347. 7 mei yuan ang si mei yuan zhi shu wei sheng 0. 04 zhi 96. 542. xian huo jin jia ji xu shua xin qu nian 4 yue 19 ri yi lai gao dian zhi 1346. 75 mei yuan ang si. zui jin shi chang dui mei yuan de bi xian xu qiu xiao tui, mei zhi yi lian xu si ge jiao yi ri shou die, duo tou zhe ji 97 zheng shu guan kou. shou wei rao zui xin zhong mei mao yi tan pan jiang bang zhu jie jue shuang fang mao yi mo ca de le guan qing xu ying xiang. mei lian chu shou yi lv xia hua ye jin yi bu xue ruo le mei yuan xu qiu. da he zheng quan de zi shen hui shi ce lue shi Yukio Ishizuki biao shi:" mei zhai shou yi lv xia die gei mei yuan zao cheng de xia xing ya li xiang dang da. shi chang can yu zhe shi tu xiao hua ke neng pian ge pai de FOMC lian bang gong kai shi chang wei yuan hui hui yi ji yao, ye rang mei yuan chu yu shou shi." mei yuan die shi zan huan, jiao yi shang deng dai mei lian chu ding yu bei jing shi jian zhou si ling chen 3: 00 jiang gong bu de hui yi ji yao. jian yu mei lian chu zai 1 yue zheng ce hui yi shang fa biao de sheng ming ming xian pian ge pai, ci ci mei lian chu hui yi ji yao you yi xia san da kan dian: yi mei lian chu wei lai li lv bian hua lu jing mei lian chu zhu xi bao er shang yue biao shi, zai zai ci tiao zheng li lv qian ke yi" bao chi nai xin", rang mei guo sheng xi bu fa feng xiang tu bian. mu qian, jue ce ceng guan yuan pu bian yu qi, mei lian chu nian nei zhi duo jia xi 1 ci. niu yue lian chu zhu xi wei lian mu si zhou er biao shi, ta dui mei guo mu qian de li lv shui ping gan dao man yi, ren wei mei you bi yao zai ci sheng xi, chu fei jing ji cheng zhang huo tong zhang yi wai jia su. wei lian mu si zai jie shou cai fang shi biao shi, ta gan jue li lv yi da dao ta mu qian ren wei de" zhong xing" shui zhun, cheng zhang he shi ye qu wen, qie tong zhang ru guo you de hua, lue ruo yu yu qi. dang bei wen ji shi fou xu yao mou zhong chong ji cai neng hui fu jia xi shi, ta shuo, xu yao qi zhong yi ge huo duo ge yin su yi wai shang xing. wei lian mu si de yan lun tu xian chu shou jin huo bi zheng ce de men kan you duo gao, bing an shi zhe yi ju cuo ke neng bu hui hen kuai chu tai. ta biao shi, jue ce zhe zai zheng ce shang" chu yu fei chang you li de wei zhi", li lv zai zhong xing shui zhun fu jin, mei guo jing ji chu yu qiang shi, wu jia ya li chi zhi. ya te lan da lian chu zhu xi bo si di ke fei cheng lian chu zhu xi ha ke er ren ci qian ye shuang shuang yu ce, mei guo jin nian sheng xi bu hui chao guo 1 ci. jiu jin shan lian chu zhu xi dai li geng yu qi, mei guo jin nian gen ben bu hui sheng xi. zai jie shou hua er jie ri bao bo ke, wei bo fang wen shi zhi chu, ru guo jing ji fa zhan ru ta suo shuo, yu qi jing ji cheng zhang 2 tong zhang lv 1. 9, tong shi mei you wu jia ya li shang sheng mei you jing ji cheng zhang jia su de gan jue, ren wei jin nian jiu bu cun zai sheng xi de li you. FX678 yu qi, mei lian chu ke neng zai 1 yue fen gong bu de hui yi ji yao zhong, jiu jia xi qian jing zuo chu geng jia ge pai de biao shu, mei yuan zhi shu chong xin zhan shang 97 guan kou ke neng xing bu da. er mei lian chu ru he kan dai zi chan fu zhai biao suo biao jin cheng? 200709 nian jing ji shuai tui zhi hou, mei lian chu zi chan fu zhai biao gui mo yi jing peng zhang zhi yu 4 wan yi mei yuan, mei lian chu jue ce zhe cong 2017 nian di kai shi suo biao. mu qian zheng yi dao qi gong zhai shou yi bu zai quan bu chong xin tou zi de fang shi jin xing suo biao. suo biao xiang dang yu shou jin huo bi zheng ce. mei si te cheng, suo biao jin cheng ke neng dui chang qi li lv chan sheng le shang xing ya li. dan mei si te bing bu yu ji jie shu suo biao jiang dui jing ji dai lai ti zhen. ta biao shi:" zong de lai shuo, wo bu ren wei zi chan fu zhai biao hui dui jing ji chan sheng shi zhi ying xiang." ta zai te la hua da xue yi xiang xiao zu tao lun hui zhong de yan lun an shi, zi ji zhi chi" fang man" suo biao jin cheng. ta bing ren wei, mei lian chu jin nian nian di qian hai ke yi jie shu jian chi zhai quan de jin cheng, bing qie huo neng yi bu dao wei di jie shu suo biao xing dong. wei lian mu si ze biao shi, mei lian chu zi chan fu zhai biao gui mo ke neng jiao zhi qian yu xiang de yuan geng jie jin mu qian shui zhun. ta bing gu ji, dang zi chan fu zhai biao gui mo da dao" ke neng you 1 wan yi mei yuan de chu bei, huo lue gao yu zhe yi shui ping", ji jiao dang qian shui zhun jian shao yue 6000 yi mei yuan shi, suo biao ke neng jie shu. mei yin mei lin fen xi shi zhi chu, zi chan fu zhai biao de tao lun ke neng zui wei zhong yao. mei lian chu shang ci zheng ce hui yi shang yi jing biao tai, zi chan fu zhai biao jiang hui gen ju jing ji qing kuang zuo chu tiao zheng, dan zai shi jian zhou qi yi ji mu biao shui ping deng, yu qi mei lian chu jiang zai hui yi ji yao zhong tou lu xie xu xian suo. san jing ti mei zhai shou yi lv qu xian ke neng mai xiang dao gua hui gu mei lian chu qu nian 12 yue sheng xi shi, duo shu guan yuan dou yu qi jin nian hai hui you liang ci sheng xi. dan sui zhe mei guo jing ji qing shi gai bian, li ru qu nian 12 yue ling shou xiao shou chuang yu 9 nian lai zui da die fu 1 yue zhi zao ye chan chu ye chuang xia 8 ge yue lai zui da jiang fu. mei lian chu zai duan duan liu zhou na cong" an shi sheng xi" zhuan xiang" yu shi bu hui jin yi bu sheng xi". guan cha ren shi ren wei, 1 yue de lian bang gong kai shi chang wei yuan hui hui yi ji yao gong kai hou, you ke neng zai ji zhou na da fu tui dong shou yi lv qu xian chao dao gua fang xiang fa zhan. BMO ce lue shi Jon Hill zhi chu, mei guo 2 nian qi gong zhai he 10 nian qi gong zhai de shou yi li cha, 12 yue chu ji 9. 1 ge ji dian hou, mu qian wei 14. 4 ge ji dian. ru guo 1 yue de FOMC hui yi ji xian shi, wu lun wei yuan hui zhi xiang yi xia liang ge fang xiang zhong de ren he yi ge, dou ke neng cu shi gai shou yi li cha shou zhai.① mei lian chu an shi, ji shi mei guo jing ji mei you chang qi gai shan de ji xiang, reng hui zai yi ci sheng xi.② mei lian chu jue ce guan yuan ren wei, jing ji shuai tui feng xian chao guo ta men zhi qian de yu xiang, chong shen qing xiang yu bao chi lian bang ji jin li lv qu jian bu bian. Hill shuo, jian yu mu qian de di li lv bo dong, yi ji mei guo huo bi zheng ce ju shi da dao jin rong wei ji yi lai zui bu que ding de zhuang tai, zhai quan shi chang dui 1 yue hui yi ji yao te bie min gan, ke neng wei shou yi lv qu xian zai ji zhou na dao gua dian ding ji chu. hui tong wang fen xi ren wei, zhai shi shou yi lv qu xian dao gua, yi wei zhe duan qi rong zi cheng ben gao qi, chang qi jing ji qian jing ze bu wei shi chang kan hao, shi chang bi xian qing xu hui shou dao ti zhen, zong ti shang li hao jin jia zou qiang. xian huo huang jin huo hui ce 1326 mei yuan jin jia dang qian zheng shi tu zhan wen 1340 mei yuan shang fang, zi 1196 mei yuan kai qi de shang xing 3 lang zou shi ji xu yan zhan. zai shang ri da zhang hou, duo tou de mu biao xian ran yi jing biao zhun le qian qi gao dian zhong yao jing xian wei 1366 mei yuan. 3 lang you ke fen wei wu zi lang. zai wu lang jie gou zhong, di san lang tong chang bu neng bi di yi di wu lang dou duan. jian yu ci pan duan, jin jia duan xian you wang jian ding. mu qian jin jia ke neng chu yu 3 lang zhong de di v lang, chang du jie jin iii lang. ruo jin jia zhuan die kai qi 4 lang zou shi, hou shi huo hui ce 1326 mei yuan he 1300 mei yuan guan kou. 1326 mei yuan shi 13661160 mei yuan xia die qu jian de 80. 9 fei bo na qi hui dang wei.

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